The Info Broker
Expert Intervention
Caldari State
365
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Posted - 2013.07.06 22:24:00 -
[1] - Quote
As I've been working on a couple of new reports I've been getting increasingly worried that they might in the wrong context detract from what I am trying to do with them.
I'm hoping to explain the goal of the new report I am working on, and see if you guys thinks it's worth me continuing work on it, if I should modify my process, or if I should scrap altogether to work on other things.
My Goal
Creating a PC ELO ranking for every Dust Corporation that has been involved in PC. (If you don't know what an ELO is, it is basically a number that represents your relative level of success in PC by looking at who you have won and lost against, and factoring in the success [score] of the opponents you've played in each win and loss. Each week I would update the Win/Loss of a corporation based on that weeks combat, and recalculate the ELO to show who is moving up, and who is moving down in the Dust rankings.
Primary Issues with the new Report
The biggest issue with this report is that I don't have a full data set. The only signs I see as a third party observer to most PC matches is district flips. For this reason I am forced to make successfully flipping a district a win, and failing to defend a district a loss. This creates an inherent unfairness as groups who attack and then sell or give districts away will can't suffer losses. It also makes politics, and ringing just as important as combat to determining your PC ELO.
While I agree these are all serious problems there is no way I can see to get around them, and I think they can be overlooked as long as you are not trying to draw to much additional meaning out of the ranking. The rankings are here to show who has had the most success in PC, it's not meant to suggest a higher ranked group will win in a 16v16 match. Things like Ringers or Politics are extremely important in PC, and I don't really mind them being extra factors in the process of calculating a PC ELO. At the end of the day all my information and calculations will be 100% public, and if you disagree with a ranking you can take a district from them and change it.
The Process of Ranking Corporations
I've assigned a value of 1500 to every single Corporation who entered PC. Nobody got any adjustments due to expected performance, or reputation. Using a K-Value of 30 I've ran a calculation for every single district flip that has happened in PC so far. The group that took the district gained ELO, the group that lost it lost an equal amount. The amount they gained or lost in every single calculation was based on the score of both parties involved. Some fights are only worth 3 points because of the ranking differences (Teamplayers defeating ZionTCD), while others have been worth 50+ points if they are serious upsets, say Zion beats Teamplayers.
I've basically made this post to see where you guys land on this topic. Is this a meaningful statistic or report, or does it come off as just e-peen measuring or sensationalist reporting? I know other Dust sites have used 'shadow rankings' or just straight up editorialized rankings, only to come out looking foolish a few months later. I'm personally more interested in bringing content I can back up with numbers, even still I'd prefer to throw away a backed up report like this is even after it's near completion if it would hurt the overall thing we are trying to build, or be primarily be misinterpreted.
If I do end up publishing it I guess I ask that it not be used for trolling or talking **** if possible. Yes some groups had extensive losses and no wins, it's a part of the report because it includes all of PC. I personally respect any group that got involved in PC, even if things didn't go well. I'm asking that if I put a lot of time into making this report that you have some respect for what I did and don't use it to troll to much. Thanks! |